20 Comments
Feb 5Liked by Clare Pain

From the most recent ABS report (Jan 2024) I make it for actual numbers:

2019: 164,388

2020: 164,778

2021: 171,718

2022: 190,326

So from your table for 2020 the original model predicted 161,065 and actual was 162,666. Seems pretty good.

NEW model predicted 170,045 and actual 164,795

The new model suddenly predicted 9,000 more than previous and has a greater difference with the actuals AND it is supposed to be a better model?

I presume the extra actuals of 2000 are just late registrations in the later report?

Thanks for your persistence with this Clare.

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Hi Andrew, Thank you for your kind words. I think the most recent PMS was actually released on 20th December 2023 and I have used their monthly figures for actual deaths in my table above (as I was recommended to do by one of their statisticians). The figures you quote here are from their weekly figures - and I think they aren't exactly for 365 (or 366) days but for a whole number of weeks. It makes a big difference in 2020 in particular when there were 53 weeks in the ABS's year. I must admit I am not sure why the actual deaths are different for the ABS's new model and the PMS - but I have a feeling it is to do with this type of thing. I'll ask the ABS because it is important in the table that I am comparing like with like.

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Yes I added the weekly data. 2020 becomes 161,787 on 52 weeks. 52 weeks is 364 days so pretty close to a year

Still its strange original model was 162,666 actual for 2020 and latest data is a bit less.

We'd expect later reported data to be larger. Oh well....

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Thanks for putting this together Clare, I've added your data points to the excess death category and timeline

https://totalityofevidence.com/excess-mortality/

https://totalityofevidence.com/timeline/abs-release-new-model-for-measuring-excess-mortality-in-australia-lowering-the-numbers/

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Thank you Jack. I was not aware of your website. Are you aware of www.excessdeathstats.com? I have been coordinating the statistics for this with volunteers around the world.

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No, I don't recall seeing this website

But I've added you next to 'mortality watch'

https://totalityofevidence.com/excess-mortality/

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Feb 5Liked by Clare Pain

Thanks for highlighting how numbers, definitions and categories can be manipulated to support the promoted narrative. It would be interesting to know exactly how many people (if any) died with an autopsy that found Covid diseased tissue to support your statement that “some excess deaths will have been caused by covid of course”.

As you are probably aware many deaths, if not all, were and are still being labelled as a ‘Covid death’ if the person dies ‘with’ a positive PCR test for a fragment of the alleged SARS-CoV2 virus, even though causation has never been scientifically proven. When you think about it, this would be equivalent to labelling all ‘Covid vaccine deaths’ as those people who died ‘with’ one or more doses of the vaccine, but for some strange reason this equivalent labelling isn’t permitted. Surely it is time to stop playing their games and start calling out the double standard of this labelling that only benefits the perpetrators.

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Hi Laura, thank you for taking the time to comment and I like your point on deaths 'with' the vaccine! You are speaking to the converted here Laura. I agree that the way deaths 'with' covid are being lumped in with deaths from covid is completely wrong, plus I strongly suspect that deaths from covid are overcounted because of the WHO's rules on assigning deaths from covid and I think it is wrong to assume that any death from covid is an excess death - for the reason I gave above. However, I would be surprised if some of the excess deaths are not deaths from covid. The big question is - what proportion of the people dying from covid were vaccinated and how does that compare with population vaccination levels?

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Hi Clare.

Great update and discussion, thank you!

Please email a copy of the spreadsheet to me as well. You have my address. :)

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Will do Sally

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Done Sally

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Clare....thank-you for the update. Please email the spreadsheet to me as I would like to update my Nov.22, 2023 Chart of the Day (CotD) Australia Covid and Excess Deaths

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Will do Eldric.

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Eldric I don't think I have an email address for you?

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A Midwestern Doctor from The Forgotten . ( Posts on Substack) see his post of today....it may really assist you .

Thank you for your work .

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Thanks - there are quite a few articles and I'm wondering which you mean Kaylene?

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Excellent analysis, thank you. Vaccine-caused deaths with a mix of ADE-induced infections offset with a skewing of the data leading to many a resurrection. A properly conducted Royal Commission would surely reveal all.

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Thank you for your comment. I'd like to understand better what you mean here David? Do you have time to expand?

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Thank you, Clare. Yes, there were dramatic spikes in deaths in Australia coinciding with the rollouts of the vaccines, along with the generation of new variants and compromised immune systems leading to hospitalisations by way of antibody-dependent enhancement. With the ABS mortality data, my understanding is that if baseline averages prior to Covid were changed, then the excess in 2021 onwards could be shown to be appearing less than what did actually occur.

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